Climate Scenarios

Human activities that emit greenhouse gases and the way land is used affecting land cover change climate. Temperatures are rising, glaciers are melting, sea level is rising and rainfall patterns are changing. Future climate change projections produced based on scenarios that predict different global greenhouse gas emissions indicate that these changes will continue in the same way. Turkey is in a risky region in terms of climate change. Projections show that temperatures will increase everywhere in the future, while precipitation will decrease significantly in the southern half of the country.

What will Climate Change Cause in Istanbul?

  • Increase in temperature due to global warming (maximum 4.5°C per year),

  • Increase in temperature due to urbanization (1-2°C / year),

  • More summer temperature increase (Summer increase ≈ 1.5 x Winter increase),

  • Increase in extreme events (such as hot air waves) on the hot side,

  • Temperatures almost never fall below 0°C,

  • Decrease in summer precipitation (Max. 30%),

  • Increase in the amount of evaporation-sweating (Max. 11%),

  • Extension of the arid period (Max. 23 days),

  • Increase in precipitation (max. 59%) during heavy rainy days,

  • It is expected that the climate will evolve into a typical Mediterranean climate.

What kind of positive and negative reflections will these and other changes have on Istanbul?

  • Increasing Mediterranean climate characteristics will have a positive impact on people and tourism.

  • Increase in temperature will reduce snow fighting activities in winter.

  • Decrease in the number of frosty days will reduce salting activities in urban transportation.

  • Decrease in snow and fog incidents due to temperature increase will reduce the problems in land, sea and air transportation.

  • The need for heating will decrease in winter.

  • Decrease in summer precipitation and increase in evaporation will cause decrease in water resources.

  • Decrease in water resources will increase vulnerability to extreme events such as drought.

  • Increase in extreme temperature events will pose a threat for older people, children and people with cardiovascular disease.

  • The need for cooling in the summer will increase. Total energy demand will increase on an annual basis.

  • Increase in temperature will increase fire risk.

  • Ecosystem services will be adversely affected by temperature increases.

  • The increase in temperature and the prolongation of the dry season will increase the maintenance cost of parks, gardens and green areas.

  • Those living in places where there is unplanned building construction and those belonging to the lowest group economically will be affected the most by climate change.